First Debate Doesn’t Change Polling Much

On April 7th, 2024, the first general election debate was held in the 2024 Mexican presidential election.

All three candidates participated: Claudia Sheinbaum of MORENA and allies, Xochitl Galvez of the PAN/PRI/PRD coalition and Jorge Alvarez Maynez of the Movimiento Ciudadano party.

Source: Le Monde

The strategies of each candidate were predictable. Sheinbaum is for a continuation of the policies of current president AMLO. Galvez has to attack the current government, especially attacking Sheinbaum’s term as Mexico City mayor and Sheinbaum personally. As for Alvarez Maynez, the only male candidate, he was trying to get attention.

For a transcript of the debate, click here.

After all was said and done, there was not a great difference in the Bloomberg poll after the debate.

A Bloomberg poll tracker dated April 4th had the candidates with these percentages:
Sheinbaum 59% ; Galvez 34% ; Alvarez Maynez 7% .

The debate was 3 days later, on April 7th.

Then on April 14th, the Bloomberg poll tracker had the candidates with these percentages:
Sheinbaum 58% ; Galvez 33% ; Alvarez Maynez 9% .

That means that Alvarez Maynez went up two points, with one point taken from Sheinbaum and one point taken from Galvez.

That’s not exactly earth-shattering.

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