The Astonishing Growth and Power of Mexico’s MORENA Party

Claudia Sheinbaum won the Mexican presidential
election on June 2nd, 2024. Her MORENA party
also did quite well in the Mexican congressional
election.

Amazingly, the MORENA party has only existed
as a political party for 10 years, since 2014.
It was founded by current President
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO).
It is now the biggest and most powerful
political party in Mexico.
Take a look at the last four election cycles and you can
see how impressive the growth of the party is.

THE 2006 MEXICAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Back in 2006, there were three main political parties in Mexico: the PRD (left), the PRI (center) and the PAN (right). From left to right, here are the three candidates: AMLO of the PRD coalition, Roberto Madrazo of the PRI coalition, Felipe Calderon of the PAN.

(Photo Credits: AMLO photo by Ariel Gutierrez Vivanco; Madrazo photo by Gustavo Benitez; Calderon photo by Roosewelt Pinheiro.)

It was a close and disputed election. Calderon (right) won with 36.69% of the vote,
squeaking by AMLO (left) with 36.09% of the vote. Madrazo (middle) had 22.75% of the vote.  (In Mexico you only need a plurality, not a majority to win the presidency).  

Look at map the below and you can see that northern Mexico (in blue) mostly went for Calderon and southern Mexico (in yellow) mostly went for AMLO

THE 2012 MEXICAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
In 2012, the three main parties were still the PRD, the PRI and the PAN. The main candidates were AMLO of the leftist PRD coalition ( left), Enrique Pena Nieto of the centrist PRI coalition (middle) and Josefina Vasquez Mota of the right-wing PAN (right):

Photo by Eneas de Troya

Pena Nieto (middle) won the election with 39.17% of the vote. AMLO (left) won 32.41% of the vote and Vazquez Mota won 26.03% of the vote.

Note the map below. The PRI dominated in western and central Mexico, the PAN on the Gulf Coast and the PRD in the south:

THE 2018 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

This year was AMLO’s third time to run, but this time he was the standard-bearer of his new MORENA party, which he had founded. The three principal candidates were
AMLO of the leftist MORENA coalition (left), Jose Antonio Meade of the PRI coalition (center) and Ricardo Anaya of the right/left PAN coalition (right):

Source: Agencia de Noticias ANDES

AMLO won the 2018 election with 54.71% of the vote, followed by Anaya of the PAN coalition with 22.91% and Meade with 16.88%. Additionally, independent candidate Jaime “el Bronco” Rodriguez garnered 5.38% of the vote. As for the PRD, formerly AMLO’s party, it actually ran in coalition with the PAN. Note the map of the 2018 election. AMLO won in every state with the exception of Guanajuato (blue on the map):

THE 2024 MEXICAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
By 2024, the political panorama is very different. What were formerly the 3 principal parties (PAN, PRI and PRD) are now one coalition with one candidate, Xochitl Galvez. There’s a small party (Movimiento Ciudadano) running a candidate (Jorge Alvarez Maynez). And MORENA is running in coalition with two smaller parties, with the candidate Claudia Sheinbaum.

(Photo Sources: Sheinbaum Eneas De Troya; Alvarez Maynez EneasMX ; Galvez EneasMX)

This time, MORENA won with an even bigger majority than in 2018. Claudia Sheinbaum, the MORENA coalition candidate, received 59.7594 % of the total. Xochitl Galvez of the PAN/PRI/PRD coalition received 27.4517 % of the total. Jorge Alvarez Maynez of Movimiento Ciudadano won 10.3213% of the total.

And look at the map. Sheinbaum of MORENA won every state with the exception of Aguascalientes:

In the Mexican congressional election, MORENA won majorities in both houses of the Congress. In the Chamber of Deputies (House of Representatives equivalent) the MORENA coalition (MORENA, Labor Party, Green Party) won 372 seats out of 500. That’s higher than the 334 seats which would give them a two-thirds super-majority. In the Senate, the MORENA coalition (MORENA, Green Party,Labor Party) won 83 seats out of 128. That’s two seats short of the 85 required for a two-thirds super-majority, necessary for constitutional amendments.

CONCLUSION

In the past ten years, AMLO has accomplished a lot. Not only did he win the presidency, but he formed a political party which is now the biggest and most powerful party in Mexico, and his protege (Sheinbaum) is set to take office on October 1st.

The former major parties, the PAN, PRI and PRD have been greatly diminished.

The supporters and politicians of the MORENA party are glad, of course.

But is it good for one party to wield so much power?