How safe is it for Americans to travel to Mexico?
On the one hand there are terrible stories of violence emanating from south of the border. On the other hand there are tens of millions of Americans who visit Mexico every year, the vast majority of whom suffer no untoward incident.
Mexico is a big country (about the size of Western Europe) and how safe one is depends much on where one is and what one is doing.
One source that helps us get a handle on this paradox is the U.S. State Department’s Mexico Travel Advisory, which is updated from time to time. I have found this to be an accurate barometer of the situation in Mexico.
On August 12th the State Department’s Mexico Travel Advisory was updated. You can peruse it here.
The State Department has a four-level rating of how dangerous a state of Mexico is. The four levels are:
Level 1: Exercise normal precautions
Level 2: Exercise increased caution
Level 3: Reconsider travel
Level 4: Do not travel
The travel advisory breaks the whole country of Mexico down, applying the four levels to the states of Mexico. Here’s the travel advisory’s color-coded map of all of Mexico:
-Level 4, the “Do not travel” level, includes the states of Colima, Guerrero, Michoacan, Sinaloa, Tamaulipas and Zacatecas. The State Department is advising Americans not to go to those states.
-Level 3, the “Reconsider travel” states, are Baja California, Chiapas, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Guanajuato, Jalisco, Morelos and Sonora. The State Department is saying “think twice” before going to those states. (There’s a color error on the map, Coahuila should have the same color as Chihuahua).
-Level 2, the “Exercise increased caution” states, are Aguascalientes, Baja California Sur, Durango, Hidalgo, the state of Mexico, Nayarit, Nuevo Leon, Oaxaca, Puebla, Queretaro, Quintana Roo, San Luis Potosi, Tabasco, Tlaxcala and Veracruz.
Mexico City is also on Level 2.
-Level 1, the “Exercise normal precautions”, includes two states in the Yucatan Peninsula: the state of Campeche and the state of Yucatan, regarded by the State Department as the safest states in Mexico.
Some people complain about the State Department Travel Advisory, and some might quibble about the details, but I’ve found it to be accurate and a good starting point to get a feel for the security situation of the various states of Mexico.
Of course with enough information researchers can be even more specific and break down the security situation within each state, and even within the same metropolitan area.
By the way, the State Department has the whole world outside of the U.S. evaluated into the four levels, see the world map here.
I don’t tell people they should or shouldn’t go to Mexico. But I do say that you should know where you are going and what you are doing. Forewarned is forearmed.