Nicolas Maduro has been removed as president of Venezuela and U.S. President Donald Trump has set his sights on the communist island of Cuba.
Mexico is now Cuba’s main supplier of petroleum. And the Trump administration is ok with that.
What’s going on?
Mexico has been sending oil to Cuba since the 1980s. But by 2025, even before Maduro’s removal, Mexico had surpassed Venezuela in the quantity of oil shipped to Cuba.
According to CiberCuba, in calendar year 2025, “…Mexico exported an average of 12,284 barrels of crude oil per day to Cuba last year, which accounts for about 44% of the island’s total oil imports and represents a 56% increase compared to 2024. In contrast, Venezuela contributed only 9,528 barrels per day, a 63% decrease compared to 2023.”
So even before Trump’s arrest and removal of Maduro, Mexico had become Cuba’s biggest suplier.
According to Reuters, the last shipment of Venezuelan oil sent to Cuba was mid-December, 2025. Maduro was removed on January 3rd, 2026.
From another article in CiberCuba: “Amid a deep energy crisis in Cuba and growing geopolitical pressure from Washington, Mexico has emerged as the main supplier of oil and fuels for the island, replacing the collapsed flow from Venezuela.”
Venezuela and Cuba had an arrangement: “Venezuela, which for decades sustained the Cuban regime with subsidized oil in exchange for medical and intelligence services, has seen its production and export capacity plummet due to sanctions and structural collapse.”
With Maduro out of the picture, and Trump’s new relationship with Venezuela, Mexico remains as the communist island’s main petroleum supplier.
“The recent arrival of the ship Ocean Mariner in Havana Bay, carrying 86,000 barrels of fuel from Mexico, confirms this.”
The energy situation in Cuba is dire.
“The loss of Venezuelan oil, combined with the limited national refining capacity and a collapsed electrical system, keeps millions of Cubans experiencing power outages of up to 20 hours a day. The Cuban regime has tried to survive by reselling part of the imported oil, while maintaining relations with Russia—limited by the war in Ukraine—and with Mexico as its main current support.”
“In this context, Mexican shipments have avoided a total collapse, and they are even tolerated by Washington, which fears a new migratory or social outbreak if the country falls into a prolonged and widespread blackout.”
What does Mexican President Sheinbaum say about the situation?
“President Claudia Sheinbaum has defended the shipments to Cuba as part of a long-term humanitarian agreement. ‘No more oil is being sent than what has historically been sent,’ the leader assured at the beginning of this month during a press conference, responding to revelations from the Financial Times, which estimate a current volume of 12,000 barrels per day being sent to the island.”
But Mexico doesn’t profit off of petroleum exportation to Cuba.
According to Gonzalo Monroy, director of the consulting firm GMEC, “…Cuba does not pay, and the current scheme includes discounts and lenient conditions that end up accumulating as ‘accounts receivable’ that never get settled. ‘That debt accumulates and then is forgiven, as Enrique Peña Nieto did in 2013,’ he explained.“
“The situation creates internal tensions, not only due to the lack of transparency regarding the data -Pemex has not officially responded about the volumes or the amounts involved- but also because of the precedent of multimillion-dollar debts that end up being forgiven in the name of foreign policy.”
Mexico has had close relations with Cuba ever since the communist takeover in 1959. One reason, I believe, is for Mexico to demonstrate its independence from the United States. It certainly doesn’t profit much from it.
When I visited Cuba in 2014, I hardly saw any Mexican products for sale.
Then there’s another issue. Can PEMEX, Mexico’s state oil company, handle supplying Cuba with oil?
“PEMEX, the Mexican state oil company, has not met its production targets, and experts like Ramsés Pech doubt its ability to maintain consistent exports abroad if the current trend continues.“
“ ‘Pemex and its private partners produce 1.6 million barrels per day (mbd), of which only 1.3 mbd are from Pemex, falling short of the official target of 1.8 mbd,’ ” noted Pech, a partner at the energy consulting firm Grupo Caraiva.”
“Each barrel sent to Cuba additionally competes with internal needs and profitable export goals, which could trigger alarms within the company if the production backlog continues.”
“ ‘The opportunity cost can become unsustainable,’ agree Pech and Monroy.”
As for the Trump administration, it is totally aware of Mexico’s oil exports to Cuba, and doesn’t oppose it.
As reported by CBS News, “…the current U.S. policy is to allow Mexico to continue to provide oil to the island, according to Energy Secretary Chris Wright and another U.S. official. Cuba desperately needs the oil, since Venezuela is no longer supplying it, after Nicolás Maduro’s ouster…“
So what’s the administration’s thinking here?
“The U.S. does not seek to trigger a collapse of the Cuban government, but rather seeks to negotiate with Havana to transition away from its authoritarian communist system, according to a U.S. official. Mr. Trump’s post Sunday morning [January 11th] threatened Cuba, advising the island to make a deal ‘before it is too late.’ ”
The administration doesn’t really want a total cutoff to Cuba.
“The U.S. assesses that a total cutoff or embargo of Cuba would be a shock to Havana’s already overtaxed and decrepit electrical grid, which has been suffering from rolling blackouts. Cuba’s economic condition is dire — a U.S. official confirmed to CBS News that the regime has been so cash strapped that its leaders were reselling some Venezuelan oil to China, the New York Times first reported. This was exacerbating the ongoing energy shortage on the island even before Maduro’s arrest. “
“That economic strain on Havana intensified, now that it has lost virtually all its patrons, and Russia has been tied up in Ukraine.”
Is the communist regime on Cuba in its last days? Or will the regime survive this crisis as it has since 1959 ?