Mexican Cartels Wreak Havoc in Ecuador

Mexico’s two biggest drug cartels, the Sinaloa Cartel and the CJNG, have expanded into various countries. On example of a country they’ve really wrecked is Ecuador, on the Pacific coast of South America.

Mexico and Ecuador in red. Source: mapchart.net

As reported by the Wall Street Journal: “Mexico’s Jalisco New Generation and Sinaloa cartels have spread to more than 40 countries as they work to meet surging demand for cocaine in the U.S., Europe and Australia. Their turf war expanded into Ecuador, which became a top prize due to its strategic location nestled between the two biggest cocaine producers, Colombia and Peru.

Of course the cartels have local allies.

“The cartels work through local gangs that have grown stronger and more dangerous as they adopt the gruesome tactics of Mexico’s drug wars.”

The security situation in Ecuador has gone downhill.

“Ecuador has devolved in a few years from one of the region’s safest nations to among the world’s most deadly. Five of the world’s 12 most murderous cities are in Ecuador, with the city of Durán ranked No. 1, according to the Igarapé Institute, a Brazilian think tank that focuses on violence.”

“ ‘These two cartels are spreading like cancer around the world,’ said Mike Vigil, a former Drug Enforcement Administration director of international operations. ‘The ultimate goal is for one cartel or the other to take dominance over Ecuador.’ ”

“The influence of powerful Mexican cartels and other international crime syndicates makes stanching the carnage much more difficult for President Daniel Noboa, an ally of the Trump administration who was re-elected in April on pledges to curb violence.”

Presidente Daniel Noboa of Ecuador. Source:Presidency of Ecuador

“Killings are up by half in the first six months of this year, government figures show, and May was the bloodiest month on record. Ecuador’s homicide rate is approaching a high of about 50 per 100,000 people in 2025, roughly twice Mexico’s. In 2018, Ecuador’s murder rate was below six per 100,000, similar to the U.S.’s.”

Source: Our World in Data

“To reduce violence, Noboa’s looking for support from the U.S., where President Trump has directed the Pentagon to prepare options to use military force against Mexican cartels he’s designated as terrorist groups.”

Noboa wants to reopen a U.S. military base in Ecuador. His government is also partnering with Erik Prince, the American mercenary who founded Blackwater, to train Ecuadorean police and soldiers.

The WSJ article has a history of the Mexican cartels in Ecuador, you can check that out here.

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In Brooklyn Court, El Mayo Pleads Guilty

In 2024, Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, a leader of the Sinaloa Cartel, was tricked into flying to El Paso, Texas, where he was arrested by U.S. authorities.

Now, El Mayo has submitted a guilty plea in a U.S. federal court in Brooklyn, the same federal courthouse where his former colleague El Chapo Guzman was convicted in 2019.

Until his arrest in 2024, El Mayo had never been arrested or incarcerated before.

In court: El Mayo Zambada (left) and defense attorney Frank Perez (right). Source: Jane Rosenberg

From ABC News: “The co-founder of Mexico’s Sinaloa cartel pleaded guilty Monday [August 25th] to federal drug trafficking charges that accused him of being one of the most prolific and powerful narcotraffickers in the world. Ismael Zambada, 75, pleaded guilty to two counts contained in two different indictments, including one that charged him with engaging in a continuing criminal enterprise for 35 years beginning in 1989. Judge Brian Cogan said he would sentence Zambada to life in prison. The plea agreement orders him to forfeit $15 billion. His sentencing has been scheduled for Jan. 13, 2026.”

Speaking through an interpreter, El Mayo said “I recognize the great harm illegal drugs have done to the people of the United States, of Mexico, and elsewhere. I take responsibility for my role in all of it and I apologize to everyone who has suffered or been affected by my actions.”

Attorney General Pam Bondi flew to New York to make her statement about what she called a “landmark victory”.

Attorney General Pam Bondi speaks. Source: Charly Triballeau

Quoth AG Bondi “Thanks to the relentless work of our prosecutors and our federal agents, El Mayo will spend the rest of his life behind bars. He will die in a U.S. federal prison where he belongs. His guilty plea brings us one step closer to achieving our goal of elimination of the drug cartels and the transnational criminal organizations throughout this world that are flooding our country with drugs, human traffickers and homicides.”

And, she said that “This guy, ‘El Mayo,’ was living like a king. Now he’s living like a criminal for the rest of his life.”

Back in Mexico, President Claudia Sheinbaum (who has been accused of being a narco-politician by Senator Lilly Tellez) was asked at her morning press conference “Is there concern in your government over what ‘el Mayo” could declare?”

To which President Sheinbaum replied “No. Whatever he is going to declare – and if the Attorney General’s office inquires about it – any issue related to Mexico has to pass through evidences and through the Mexican Attorney General’s Office, there is a process.” [Video here]

President Sheinbaum, Aug. 25 Press Conference. (Not when answering the question referred to in this article).
Source: Government of Mexico

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Mexican Senator Calls President Sheinbaum a Narco-Politician, on Fox News No Less!

Mexican Senator Lilly Tellez is under fire for her interview on Fox Noticias, the Fox News Spanish channel. Senator Tellez criticized President Sheinbaum and others, calling them narco-politicians. (A few months back Senator Tellez criticized President Sheinbaum for something else, see here.)

Senator Lilly Tellez. Source: Mexican Senate

From the Mexico Daily Post: “On August 20, 2025, PAN Senator Lilly Téllez sparked political uproar after an interview with American Media company Fox News in which she accused the Mexican government—specifically President Claudia Sheinbaum and the ruling Morena party—of protecting drug traffickers.”

You can view the interview here.

“Speaking to host Rachel Campos-Duffy, Téllez stated that ‘the only people opposed to U.S. help against cartels are the narco-politicians, which includes President Sheinbaum and her entire group’. She emphasized that most Mexicans support international cooperation to combat organized crime, even welcoming former [sic] President Donald Trump’s offer of assistance.”

“Téllez, a former Morena member turned vocal critic, pointed to Sheinbaum’s endorsement of Senator Adán Augusto López as evidence of cartel infiltration. Opposition figures have accused López of ties to La Barredora, a criminal group allegedly led by his former security chief in Tabasco.”

“The backlash was swift. On August 21, President Sheinbaum condemned the interview, calling Téllez a ‘traitor’ for suggesting foreign intervention. ‘It’s not a minor issue that a senator gave an interview to a foreign media outlet calling for intervention,’ Sheinbaum said during her morning press conference. She likened the act to 19th-century conservatives who invited European emperors to rule Mexico.”

They actually got Maximilian of the House of Habsburg to agree to become Emperor of Mexico. Maximilian was Emperor in Mexico City from 1864 to 1867, but it didn’t end well for him.

“Morena lawmakers echoed Sheinbaum’s outrage. PT Deputy Lilia Aguilar Gil formally requested that Téllez be investigated for ‘possible acts of treason,’ citing her statements as a threat to national sovereignty.”

Hey, check it out. A Mexican congresswoman named Lilia going after a Mexican Senator named Lilly.

“Téllez responded via social media, clarifying that she called for ‘help,’ not ‘intervention,’ and accused Sheinbaum of distorting her words. ‘Speaking of help is freedom of expression, not a crime,’ she wrote.”

Yes, but to be fair, there are proposals in Washington for direct attacks on cartels in Mexico.

“The controversy has reignited debate over Mexico’s security strategy and its relationship with the United States.”

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Mayan City Lost for Centuries Possibly Located in Chiapas

In the eastern Mexican state of Chiapas, a Mayan city that had been abandoned and lost in the jungle the past 300+ years appears to have been recently located.

Chiapas state in red. Source: TUBS

From Popular Mechanics: “Archaeologists have located Sak-Bahlán—the last city of the Lacandon rebels of Chiapas—in the Montes Azules Biosphere Reserve. The city had been lost in the jungle following its abandonment 300 years ago… The independent outpost of the rebels (known as the “land of the white jaguar”) was finally discovered thanks to the use of Geographic Information Systems predictive modeling.”

According to AI, “Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are computer systems that capture, store, manage, analyze, and display all types of geographically referenced data.”  

So what’s the story of the city? Once again, from Popular Mechanics: ” The Maya people group known as the Lacandon lost their capital, Lacam-Tún (translated as “great rock”), to the Spanish in 1586, and retreated to Sak-Bahlán for just over 100 years of independent existence, according to historical records. The group lived undisturbed during that time, even as the Spanish searched for the site. But in 1695, Spanish Friar Pedro de la Concepcion found the stronghold by happenstance, and the Spanish soon took it over and renamed it Our Lady of Sorrows. By 1721, however, anyone still living at the site had abandoned it, leaving it lost to the jungle of what is now the Montes Azules Biosphere Reserve. Efforts to relocate the site had since proven fruitless—until now.”

So how’d they find it?

“The new effort to locate the stronghold relied on predictive modeling based on information from historical documents—including a letter by Spanish friar Diego de Rivas written in 1698, which described a journey taken by a group of soldiers from the site.”

[Archaeologist Josuhé] Lozada Toledo [ National Institute of Anthropology and History (INAH) Chiapas Center specialist] and archaeologists Brent Woodfill [of the U.S.] and Yuko Shiratori [of Japan] knew the city was located on a plain surrounded by a bend in the Lacantún River. Lozada Toledo used GIS to reconstruct pre-Hispanic and historical communication routes of various Maya groups, supplementing the models with further layers of data.”

“Information from Friar de Rivas’ letter showed that the soldiers left Sak-Bahlán and walked four days to the Lacantún River. They then sailed for two days to arrive at El Encuentro de Cristo (where the tributary joins the Pasión River), and left their canoes to walk to Lake Petén Itzá in Guatemala. ‘From those places mentioned, which I had georeferenced, I made a conversion of the four days mentioned, from some point on the Lacantún River to Sak-Bahlán,’ Lozada Toledo said.”

“After accounting for a number of variables—including vegetation layers and how much each person was carrying—Lozada Toledo mapped an approximate range of where Sak-Bahlán should be located.”

“The team discovered a site near the Mexico-Guatemala border full of stone structures, tools, ceramics, and even a Spanish church, Lozada Toledo told Spanish-language Milenio—evidence that matched up with documents about the former Lacandon city. They’d found it.”

Archaeologist Josuhé Lozada Toledo was interviewed by Milenio, and asked “How was daily life there?” The reply “According to the Spanish chronicles, in its apogee between 1600 to 1694, approximately 500 persons were living there in some 100 houses. They mostly dedicated their time to agriculture, especially the cultivation of corn and maintained commercial interchanges, although secret, with other Maya groups to maintain their autonomy. This village was hidden in the thick jungle of Chiapas which allowed them to resist and maintain their culture alive until the end of the 17th century.”

When asked what comes next for the site, Lozada responded “We are planning future field seasons to carry out excavations and probes, such as using leading technology such as LIDAR to map the zone under the vegetation and detect hidden structures. We want to confirm the true extension of the settlement and seek metallic artifacts that give us clues about the commercial exchange with other cultures and contact with the Spaniards. This work still has much to reveal and we hope to contribute knowledge to future generations.”

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Grupo Bimbo in Canada

I recently visited Canada. We stopped in a convenience store in Quebec, the French-speaking province. A snack item purchased there was this product called “Ah Caramel!”.

Photo by Allan Wall

I looked at the back side of the package and saw something interesting. Look at the lower left section of the package.

Photo by Allan Wall

As you can see on the lower left section of the package, it is a product of “Bimbo Canada”.

Grupo Bimbo is a Mexican multinational company which now has a presence in 38 countries. Bimbo is in the Western Hemisphere, Europe, Asia and Africa. It has a presence in both Russia and Ukraine.

Grupo Bimbo is the biggest bakery company in the world. Its U.S. branch, Bimbo Bakeries USA, is the biggest bakery company in the United States.

The Canadian branch, Bimbo Canada, is the biggest bakery in Canada. Grupo Bimbo bought out Canada Bread® in 2014 and in 2015 acquired Vachon®, at the time Canada’s leading pastry company. The snack item in the photographs above was a product of the Vachon entity.

The Bimbo Canada website describes Bimbo Canada thusly: “We are headquartered in Etobicoke, Ontario, and operate 15 bakeries, and 183 sales centres across the country. We employ more than 4,000 associates from coast to coast.”

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Stolen Document Signed by Hernan Cortes Retrieved and Returned to Mexico by the FBI

The U.S. FBI (Federal Bureau of Investigation) recently retrieved a Mexican historical document which had somehow been purloined from an official Mexican archive. The FBI returned it to Mexico.

It was a nearly 500 year old document signed by none other than Hernan Cortes, the conqueror of the Aztec Empire and the founder of Mexico as we know it.

Hernan Cortes in 1525. Source: Museo de las Culturas de Oaxaca

From the Smithsonian magazine: “The FBI has returned a 500-year-old manuscript page signed by Hernán Cortés, the Spanish conquistador who conquered the Aztec Empire, to Mexico’s national archives.”

“The document, which is dated February 20, 1527, details ‘the payment of pesos of common gold for expenses,’ says special agent Jessica Dittmer, a member of the FBI’s art crime team, in a statement. ‘It really gives a lot of flavor as to the planning and preparation for [uncharted] territory back then.’

“The page was once part of a larger collection of documents signed by Cortés that is housed at the Mexican archives, known as El Archivo General de la Nación.”
 

Palacio de Lecumberri (former prison) which houses El Archivo General de la Nación
Source:GAED

So how’d they discover this document went missing ?

“In 1993, when specialists were preserving the documents on microfilm, they found that 15 pages had gone missing. Archivists aren’t sure exactly when the pages vanished, but they suspect that an unknown party stole them sometime between 1985 and October 1993. Before the theft, archivists had marked the pages using a wax numbering system that was only in use for a short period between 1985 and 1986.”

“Last year, Mexican officials contacted the FBI, hoping the agency’s art crime team could help locate a small piece of the manuscript: page 28.”

“ ‘With the Mexican national archive’s meticulous notes about the collection—even indicating which numbered pages went missing and the manner in which certain pages had been torn—investigators believed they could track it down through more traditional detective work,’ says the FBI’s statement.”

“Officials didn’t provide many details about the investigative process, but they say they used ‘open-source research’ to narrow down the search to the continental United States. After locating the document, they determined it had ‘changed hands several times over’ since it was first stolen, says Dittmer. As such, nobody will be prosecuted for the theft. Still, Dittmer hopes the return will send a message to potential criminals: The FBI is committed to recovering missing artworks and artifacts—even if decades have passed since the crime.”

“ ‘Pieces like this are considered protected cultural property and represent valuable moments in Mexico’s history,’ says Dittmer. ‘This is something that the Mexicans have in their archives for the purpose of understanding history better.’ ”

So what is in the document?

“The 1527 document includes logistical details connected to Cortés’ travels in what would become New Spain [name of colonial Mexico]. It’s dated to February 20, ‘just days before one of Cortés’ top lieutenants [Gonzalo de Sandoval] was appointed co-governor of the conquered territory,’ writes Reuters’ Sarah Morland.”

Here is a photo of the document. The signature of Hernan Cortes is in black at the bottom of the text in brown.

Source: FBI

Compare that signature to this signature of Cortes from another document:

Hernan Cortes signature. Source: Connormah

Congrats to the FBI for the swift resolution to this case.

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Sinaloa Cartel War Continues

The ongoing Sinaloa Cartel War in the western Mexican state of Sinaloa continues. It’s nearing its one-year anniversary, having begun on September 9th, 2024.

State of Sinaloa in red. Source: TUBS

The intra-cartel war pits one faction, La Mayiza, led by the son of “El Mayo” Zambada, against the Chapitos, sons of “El Chapo” Guzman.

According to the Noroeste newspaper report of August 17th, 2025, the murder toll in Sinaloa state since the intra-cartel war began is 1,873. That would average out to 5.5 daily.

On August 16th there were no reported homicides, the first such day since July 25th.

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Remittances to Mexico in Decline – May Be Related to U.S. Immigration Crackdown

Remittances, funds sent from Mexicans in the U.S. back to Mexico, are going down.

U.S. in orange, Mexico in green. Source: Wikipedia

In a previous article I reported that remittances in May 2025 were down 4.6% in comparison to May 2024, a year earlier.

Now the figures are out for June.

From Mexico News Daily: “The amount of money Mexico received in remittances fell 16.2% annually in June, the largest year-over-year decline for any month in more than a decade...The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) reported on Friday [August 1st] that income from remittances totaled US $5.201 billion in June, down from $6.207 billion in the same month of 2024. The 16.2% year-over-year decline was the biggest annual drop in remittances to Mexico for any month since September 2012. Considering only the month of June, it was the largest annual decrease on record.”

The June decline from a year earlier was in both numbers of remittance transfers and quantity of money in the payments:
Transfers: “The $5.2 billion sent to Mexico in remittances in June came in 12.7 million individual transfers. The number of transfers declined 14.3% compared to June 2024.”
Payment Quantities: ” “The average individual remittance to Mexico in June was $409, a 2.2% annual decline. While the average remittance declined in annual terms in June, the amount was the highest since August 2024.”

The U.S. immigration crackdown is a partial explanation: “Analysts partially attributed the sharp decline to fear of going out to work among Mexicans in the United States, where the U.S. government is pursuing an aggressive deportation agenda.”

The Mexico News Daily article quotes some analysts: “ ‘Remittances plummeted in June due to low job creation for Mexicans in the United States and the fear of migrants to go out due to the possibility of being deported,’ Gabriela Siller, director of economic analysis at Banco Base, wrote on X…” 

“Jesús Cervantes González, director of economic statistics at the Center for Latin American Monetary Studies, said ‘there are indicators that show a weakening of employment for Mexican immigrant workers in the United States.’ ”

“ ‘That could be due both to a genuine decrease in demand for such workers and to their irregular presence at their workplaces out of fear of being deported,’ he said.”

The BBVA bank (Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A.), headquartered in Bilbao, Spain, agrees: “BBVA said that ‘the recent actions and immigration policies of the United States government are marginally affecting’ the transfer of remittances to Mexico. The bank said that the decline in remittances to Mexico in the first half of the year is ‘mainly explained by a lower incorporation of new Mexican migrants to the United States labor market.’ ”

A look at the first half of 2025 shows a decline: “In 2024, Mexico received a record-high $64.74 billion in remittances, the 11th consecutive year of growth in such transfers. But in the first six months of 2025, income from remittances fell 5.6% annually to $29.576 billion, according to Banxico.”

“The amount of money Mexico received in remittances also declined in annual terms in May, April and February.”

“Siller, the Banco Base analyst, said that the data for June indicated that ‘remittances could continue to decline for the rest of the year, affecting consumption in Mexico.’ ”

“Analysts from the banks Banorte, BBVA, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan also believe there is a risk that remittances will continue to decline in the second half of 2025, according to the newspaper El Economista.”

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President Sheinbaum Doing Very Well in Mexican Approval Polls

Claudia Sheinbaum has been President of Mexico since October 1st, 2024. Her public approval ratings are looking very good.

President Claudia Sheinbaum. Source: AS/COA

AS/COA (Americas Society/Council of the Americas) tracks various polls and has reported them here.

The AS/COA quotes two polls from last month (July). El Financiero had a poll taken July 10-14 and 24-28). In that poll, President Sheinbaum had a 75% approval rating.
In an Enkoll poll (July 19th-22nd) President Sheinbaum had an 80% approval rating.

Regarding that Enkoll 80% figure, if you break it down between men and women, 79% of women approved and 80% of men.

If these polls are accurate, that means the Mexican public highly approves of the Sheinbaum’s presidential performance.

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How Safe is Mexico for Tourists? The State Department Travel Advisory Can Help.

How safe is it for Americans to travel to Mexico?

On the one hand there are terrible stories of violence emanating from south of the border. On the other hand there are tens of millions of Americans who visit Mexico every year, the vast majority of whom suffer no untoward incident.

Mexico is a big country (about the size of Western Europe) and how safe one is depends much on where one is and what one is doing.

One source that helps us get a handle on this paradox is the U.S. State Department’s Mexico Travel Advisory, which is updated from time to time. I have found this to be an accurate barometer of the situation in Mexico.

On August 12th the State Department’s Mexico Travel Advisory was updated. You can peruse it here.

The State Department has a four-level rating of how dangerous a state of Mexico is. The four levels are:
Level 1: Exercise normal precautions
Level 2: Exercise increased caution
Level 3: Reconsider travel
Level 4: Do not travel
The travel advisory breaks the whole country of Mexico down, applying the four levels to the states of Mexico. Here’s the travel advisory’s color-coded map of all of Mexico:

Source: U.S. Department of State

-Level 4, the “Do not travel” level, includes the states of Colima, Guerrero, Michoacan, Sinaloa, Tamaulipas and Zacatecas. The State Department is advising Americans not to go to those states.

-Level 3, the “Reconsider travel” states, are Baja California, Chiapas, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Guanajuato, Jalisco, Morelos and Sonora. The State Department is saying “think twice” before going to those states. (There’s a color error on the map, Coahuila should have the same color as Chihuahua).

-Level 2, the “Exercise increased caution” states, are Aguascalientes, Baja California Sur, Durango, Hidalgo, the state of Mexico, Nayarit, Nuevo Leon, Oaxaca, Puebla, Queretaro, Quintana Roo, San Luis Potosi, Tabasco, Tlaxcala and Veracruz.
Mexico City is also on Level 2.

-Level 1, the “Exercise normal precautions”, includes two states in the Yucatan Peninsula: the state of Campeche and the state of Yucatan, regarded by the State Department as the safest states in Mexico.

Some people complain about the State Department Travel Advisory, and some might quibble about the details, but I’ve found it to be accurate and a good starting point to get a feel for the security situation of the various states of Mexico.

Of course with enough information researchers can be even more specific and break down the security situation within each state, and even within the same metropolitan area.

By the way, the State Department has the whole world outside of the U.S. evaluated into the four levels, see the world map here.

I don’t tell people they should or shouldn’t go to Mexico. But I do say that you should know where you are going and what you are doing. Forewarned is forearmed.

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