The scheduled inauguration of Donald J. Trump as President of the United States is just a few days away. How will Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum get along with Trump?
Even though not yet president, Trump is already, for all practical purposes, being treated as president by foreign leaders. They know they have to deal with him after January 20th, so they might as well start now.
Regarding immigration and the border, Claudia Sheinbaum has accepted the fact that she has to take in deportees. She is even willing to take in non-Mexican deportees, although she previously balked at that.
Simultaneously, the Mexican government, through its massive consular network in the United States, is working on using lawfare to prevent or delay the deportation of as many illegal aliens as possible. They are also providing an app to Mexican illegal aliens with which they can contact the nearest consulate and their families if they are detained.
After all the hullabaloo, I think that Claudia Sheinbaum will have a constructive relationship with Donald Trump. After all, the previous Mexican President AMLO got along with President Biden, before that with Trump (first administration). There’s just too much at stake.
Sheinbaum and Trump have yet to meet. When they do meet, I think it will go well.
Remember, international politics is about finding common interests. And the U.S. and Mexico have common interests.
Regarding Trump’s silly proposal to rename the “Gulf of Mexico” as the “Gulf of America”, that may just be talk.
But suppose Trump really did that. It’s not unheard of for a geographical entity to have different names. After all, Mexico has its own language and can call it what it wants.
There’s a strategic body of water in the Near East called the Persian Gulf. It’s been called that since the time of the ancient Greeks. But in recent times, Arabs decided to call it the Arabian Gulf.
It doesn’t matter. We still call it the Persian Gulf, even though the Arabs call it the Arabian Gulf. It’s still the same body of water.
Here’s an explanation from the article: “The study, authored by researchers Rafael Prieto-Curiel, Gian Maria Campedelli, and Alejandro Hope, used a decade’s worth of data on homicides, arrests, and cartel interactions in Mexico. The findings are sobering. Mexican cartels now boast an estimated 175,000 members, making them the fifth largest employer in Mexico, right between the grocery chain Oxxo and telecoms company América Móvil.“ [See here.]
This study looks at the recruitment factor: “Cartels lose members constantly through conflict with rivals and arrests by the state. Yet they replenish their ranks at an alarming rate, recruiting at least 350 people every week. This relentless cycle of violence is self-sustaining. It’s a sobering conclusion that needs to be taken to heart by the authorities: increasing arrests does not reduce violence. Instead, it might make things worse.“
Four Factors Contributing to the Size of Cartel. Source:Science magazine
The cartels are growing. “Despite setbacks, the researchers found that cartels continue to grow. They estimate that between 2012 and 2022, cartel membership rose by 60,000 members.”
One of the three researchers, Rafael Prieto-Curiel, a former police officer in Mexico City, is currently a mathematician at the Complexity Science Hub, a research center in Vienna, Austria.
Rafael Prieto-Curiel, interviewed by ZME Science in Berlin. Source: ZME Science
Here’s what Prieto-Curiel said in an interview with ZME Science: “We try to understand with a system of equations how cartels change in size and how they manage to prevail as an institution despite the number of losses that they have through either killing or arrests. Given the data that we actually have, like the number of homicides and arrests in the country, we can understand the inside of the cartels in Mexico. And that’s what we did.”
The article discusses the problem and the research: “Cartels have an uncanny ability to adapt. When authorities crack down on one group, others move in to seize territory, recruit new foot soldiers, and expand their networks. Taking into account publicly available data and cartel dynamics, the researchers crafted a series of equations that can offer valuable insight into one of the most dangerous underground operations in the world. The model considered four forces that shape cartel size: recruitment, arrests (or incapacitation), conflict with rival cartels, and internal breakdown (saturation).”
“The numbers are stark. By 2022, cartels had between 160,000 and 185,000 active members. This means cartels rival some of Mexico’s largest employers, like the retail giant Walmart. In 2012, the researchers estimated there were 115,000 cartel members.“
“In order to sustain these numbers, the cartels have to recruit at least 370 people per week, otherwise they would collapse. Week after week, they manage to hit this quota and perhaps even more.”
“The study took into account a total of 150 active cartels in Mexico as of 2020. These cartels were identified through open-source data, including reports from national and local newspapers, and narco (narcotics) blogs.”
“ ‘We take one equation for each cartel, so we got a system of 150 equations. Each equation tells you the size of that cartel and why it changes according to the different structure conflicts and so on. We take this equation and then when we solve it,’ said Prieto-Curiel.”
The article reports the current breakdown of cartels in Mexico: “At the top of the food chain looms Cártel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG). Its reach extends across 77 state-level conflicts, like tentacles spreading out to strangle territories in its grip. With an estimated 28,764 members, CJNG has built a fortress of alliances in 55 different regions.”
“Then there is the Sinaloa Cartel, an empire whose name has echoed through decades of narco history. It commands an army of 17,825 members, locked in rivalries that span 19 states, but also bolstered by alliances in 34 regions. Once the undisputed giant, it now shares the battlefield with other rising forces.”
“Other major cartels include La Nueva Familia Michoacana with 10,736 estimated members and the Cártel del Noreste with 8,992 members. La Unión Tepito, an urban cartel entrenched in the heart of Mexico City, counts 7,561 members.”
“Lower down the food chain are countless smaller organizations, often no more than 200 members strong. But each group, no matter its size, feeds the same cycle of violence. The clashes between the ten largest cartels generate only 15% of fatalities. The rest — the bulk of the bloodshed — comes from a relentless war waged by and against smaller, fragmented cartels, who are often targeted for elimination or used as pawns in bigger gang rivalries by the major cartels.”
Notice what it says in that last paragraph: “The clashes between the ten largest cartels generate only 15% of fatalities.”
The researchers’ prediction? “The researchers estimate that if current trends continue, the violence in Mexico will worsen significantly over the next five years. By 2027, they predict: A 26% increase in cartel membership, further solidifying the cartels’ hold on the country. 40% more cartel-related casualties compared to 2022 levels.”
Why arrests aren’t solving the problem: “The traditional strategy of incapacitation — arresting cartel members and putting them behind bars — seems logical. After all, fewer criminals should mean less crime. But the study shows this approach is flawed. For every cartel member arrested, new recruits step in, often drawn from communities where opportunities are scarce and violence is a constant presence.”
“Roughly 37% of cartel members over the past decade were either killed or jailed, yet there are more cartel criminals than ever.”
“The authors found that even if arrests doubled, this approach would lead to an 8% increase in weekly casualties and a 6% growth in cartel membership. Arresting more cartel members destabilizes the power balance between cartels, triggering more violent conflicts as groups scramble to fill the void left by imprisoned leaders.”
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump thinks he has a solution: “President-elect Donald Trump promises to escalate the battle against Mexican drug gangs. Trump said that ‘we need a military operation’ against the traffickers, although he’s provided few details. His Vice-president, JD Vance, said that hundreds of thousands of American soldiers ‘are pretty pissed off’. He added, ‘I think we’ll send them in to do battle with the Mexican drug cartels.’ If that were indeed the case, this could end in disaster, ironically making cartels stronger than ever in the long run.”
So what is the solution of the researchers? “If arrests don’t work, what does? The answer lies in prevention. The study shows that cutting recruitment in half would reduce cartel-related homicides by 25% and shrink cartel membership by 11%. This strategy, the researchers argue, is more effective and sustainable.”
“ ‘The only thing that would decrease violence… was lowering the number of people who joined the organizations in the first place,’ Prieto-Curiel said.”
That makes sense but is easier said than done.
“The study calls for structural investments in a proactive strategy that targets individuals at risk rather than a traditional reactive approach.”
“Yet this would be no small feat. Reducing recruitment means addressing the social and economic conditions that push people toward cartels in the first place. Young men, who make up the bulk of cartel recruits, often face bleak futures. Cartels offer not just money, but a sense of purpose and belonging. Breaking this cycle requires massive investment in education, job creation, and community support.”
“The researchers emphasize that even if recruitment were to drop to zero overnight, it would still take years to return to the levels of violence seen a decade ago. The cartel population is simply too large, and their networks too entrenched.”
“Mexico’s fight against cartel violence is at a crossroads. The data makes it clear: the current strategy of arrests and crackdowns is a losing battle. The cartels are too resilient, their recruitment pipelines too robust. To truly reduce violence, Mexico must pivot toward a proactive approach.”
“This means providing alternatives to the cartel life. It means investing in youth, creating opportunities where there are none, and breaking the cycle of poverty and violence that feeds the cartels.”
On the other hand, says the article, “…Prieto-Curiel pointed out that recruitment isn’t driven solely by poverty, challenging a common misconception: ‘Those regions in which you have more cartel presence are not the poor ones, those cities with a higher cartel presence are not the poor ones’…”
According to the study, “Tackling recruitment has a triple effect: first, it lowers the number of cartel members, reducing the violence they can create by having fewer killers. Second, it lowers the number of targets, so fewer people are vulnerable to suffering more violence. And third, it reduces the cartel’s capacity for future recruitment…”
Prieto-Curiel had some criticism for the showbiz industry:
“Prieto-Curiel criticized how media, particularly shows like Narcos, glamorize cartel leaders and distort reality for vulnerable youth: ‘In the past 10 years… in Netflix, they are showing these cartel capos as the hero, as the person that is successful, that has all the houses, that travels with the cars. But that is not true.’ “
“He argued that such portrayals create dangerous misconceptions, making cartel life seem attractive. The reality, he stressed, is that most cartel members face grim outcomes: ‘When you see that member of the cartel being successful, what you’re not seeing is that there are the other 174,999 members of a cartel… They are the ones that get arrested, murdered, killed.’
“ ‘It’s a harsh reality,’ Prieto-Curiel said. ‘When a young person joins a cartel, the chances they will be dead or in prison within 10 years are extremely high.’
“He estimated that 50% to 60% of new recruits end up dead or incarcerated within a decade.”
“ ‘The chances that they will finish dead in the next 10 years is 100 times higher than a person in the street.’ ”
“He also pointed to the way cartels use social networks to recruit. When one person joins, it often pulls in their family, friends, and neighbors. ‘The chances are that not only you, but your whole network, will end up dead or in prison,’ he warned.”
Here’s how the article sums up the situation: “Without a change in strategy, the violence will continue, claiming more lives and destabilizing more communities. The path forward seems more clear now – but it requires courage, vision, and a willingness to invest in Mexico’s most vulnerable citizens. If Mexico hopes to break free from the cycle of cartel violence, the solution lies not in more arrests, but in fewer recruits. The country’s future depends on it.”
It seems obvious that reducing the amount of recruits to the cartels would improve the situation.
But how do you do it? How do you dissuade these young men from accepting easy money with the drug cartels ? How do you get them to look at the big picture and their likely future?
OK, this is a tricky title. It’s not that a lost Maya city was in a location in the city of New Orleans.
It’s that a PhD student at Tulane University in New Orleans, Louisiana, in the U.S., using lidar technology, discovered the existence of a lost Maya city in eastern Mexico.
And that is rather amazing.
From a BBC article published this past October: “A huge Maya city has been discovered centuries after it disappeared under jungle canopy in Mexico. Archaeologists found pyramids, sports fields, causeways connecting districts and amphitheatres in the southeastern state of Campeche.”
This map shows the Mexican state of Campeche (in red). The location of New Orleans is also on this map but not marked, near the big peninsula protruding from the U.S. Gulf Coast:
Back to the BBC: “They uncovered the hidden complex – which they have called Valeriana – using Lidar, a type of laser survey that maps structures buried under vegetation.They believe it is second in density only to Calakmul, thought to be the largest Maya site in ancient Latin America.”
Calakmul is also in the state of Campeche, not far from Valeriana.
The discovery was made by accident.
“The team discovered three sites in total, in a survey area the size of Scotland’s capital Edinburgh, ‘by accident’ when one archaeologist browsed data on the internet.‘I was on something like page 16 of Google search and found a laser survey done by a Mexican organisation for environmental monitoring,’ explains Luke Auld-Thomas, a PhD student at Tulane university in the US.”
What is Lidar ?
“It was a Lidar survey, a remote sensing technique which fires thousands of laser pulses from a plane and maps objects below using the time the signal takes to return.”
The PhD student “saw what others had missed”, which if you think about it, is the essence of discovery.
“But when Mr Auld-Thomas processed the data with methods used by archaeologists, he saw what others had missed – a huge ancient city which may have been home to 30-50,000 people at its peak from 750 to 850 AD.That is more than the number of people who live in the region today, the researchers say.Mr Auld-Thomas and his colleagues named the city Valeriana after a nearby lagoon.”
What sort of city was it?
“Valeriana has the ‘hallmarks of a capital city’ and was second only in density of buildings to the spectacular Calakmul site, around 100km away (62 miles). It is ‘hidden in plain sight’, the archaeologists say, as it is just 15 minutes hike from a major road near Xpujil where mostly Maya people now live.”
“There are no known pictures of the lost city because ‘no-one has ever been there’, the researchers say, although local people may have suspected there were ruins under the mounds of earth.”
That seems likely.
“The city, which was about 16.6 sq km, had two major centres with large buildings around 2km (1.2 miles) apart, linked by dense houses and causeways. It has two plazas with temple pyramids, where Maya people would have worshipped, hidden treasures like jade masks and buried their dead. It also had a court where people would have played an ancient ball game. There was also evidence of a reservoir, indicating that people used the landscape to support a large population. In total, Mr Auld-Thomas and Prof Canuto surveyed three different sites in the jungle. They found 6,764 buildings of various sizes.”
Lidar is a revolutionary technology.
“Lidar technology has revolutionised how archaeologists survey areas covered in vegetation, like the Tropics, opening up a world of lost civilisations, explains Prof Canuto. In the early years of his career, surveys were done by foot and hand, using simple instruments to check the ground inch by inch.”
“But in the decade since Lidar was used in the Mesoamerican region, he says it’s mapped around 10 times the area that archaeologists managed in about a century of work. Mr Auld-Thomas says his work suggests there are many sites out there that archaeologists have no idea about.”
“In fact so many sites have been found that researchers cannot hope to excavate them all.”
“ ‘I’ve got to go to Valeriana at some point. It’s so close to the road, how could you not? But I can’t say we will do a project there,’ says Mr Auld-Thomas. ‘One of the downsides of discovering lots of new Maya cities in the era of Lidar is that there are more of them than we can ever hope to study,’ he adds.”
Maybe someday somebody will be able to excavate Valeriana.
The official title of the department in Spanish is Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público, the Secretariat of the Treasury and Public Credit, commonly referred to as Hacienda. Or it can be referred to by its initials SHCP.
The headquarters of the Hacienda department is in the Palacio Nacional, which you can see at the top of this page.
The head of that bureau’s title is Secretario de Hacienda y Crédito Público. The U.S. equivalent would be the Secretary of the Treasury. The Mexican official can also referred to in English as Secretary of Finance or Minister of Finance.
Rogelio Ramirez de la O was born in Mexico in 1948.
Readers might be curious about this official’s maternal surname “De la O”, which literally means “from the O” or “of the O”. It appears to derive from the Spanish/Catalan name “Lao” which at some point was shortened to “O”.
Ramirez de la O studied economics at Mexico’s UNAM, the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (National Autonomous University of Mexico). It’s currently the 15th biggest university of the world (by enrollment) and the largest in Latin America.
Later, Ramirez de la O went to England and studied at Cambridge University, where he received a PhD in Economics.
Ramirez de la O founded Ecanal S.A., a firm providing economic analysis and predictions to businesses including multinational corporations with investments in Mexico.
Rogelio Ramirez de la O has actually been serving as Treasury Secretary since 2021, during the term of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), the previous president, and he was asked to stay over in the Sheinbaum administration, which began October 1st, 2024.
But what if criminal gangs are one of the biggest employers in the country?
A recent study has found that, taken collectively, the Mexican drug cartels are now the fifth largest employer in Mexico.
From ZME Science: “Mexican cartels now boast an estimated 175,000 members, making them the fifth largest employer in Mexico, right between the grocery chain Oxxo and telecoms company América Móvil.”
Look at chart B, which shows the eleven biggest employers in Mexico. The cartels are #5:
FEMSA (employer #1) runs Oxxo (employer #5), but for some reason they are listed separately here. But according to these employment figures, whether you count FEMSA and Oxxo as separate companies or the same company, the cartels still would be the fifth largest employer in the country.
The Maya Train (Tren Maya), a project begun during the previous administration of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), was recently completed. Here’s a photo of the Maya Train in the Merida station:
The Maya Train is located in the Yucatan Peninsula, in the eastern end of Mexico. The peninsula was and is inhabited by the Maya ethnicity. The peninsula is shared with Belize and Guatemala, but the Maya Train is only in the Mexico portion. Here is a map of Mexico with the Yucatan Peninsula in orange:
Global Construction Review has an article on the Maya Train. It begins thusly: “After four years of work, Mexico has completed the 1,540km Tren Maya railway, with recently elected president Claudia Sheinbaum inaugurating the final section on Monday [December 16th, 2024]. She opened the seventh and final section of track, which runs 287km between Escárcega and Chetumal. She said Mexico was the only country in the world that could have built a line of this length in only four years.“
The article contains a short history of the project: “It was originally meant to take two years, notes the Mexico News Daily. Work started in June 2020, during President López Obrador’s term in office, and was to have been finished by October 2022. This was pushed back more than two years by a variety of issues, including a number of court cases brought by environmental groups. Among the objections raised by protesters was the impact on wildlife such as jaguars, and the decision to run part of the system on diesel to reduce cost. The route of the track was modified several times to take into account the concerns of environmentalists.“
It has information on the railway’s route: “The railroad runs in a circuit around the Yucatán Peninsula, and connects destinations and attractions across five Mexican states: Chiapas, Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana Roo. Altogether, it has 34 stations and provides access to archaeological sites formerly occupied by the Maya people.”
How much did it cost? “The government has not released figures on how much the project cost, but independent estimates have put the price at between $20bn and $25bn – far above the initial estimate of $7bn. It will be paid for by a tourist tax and funds diverted from other cultural projects.”
Who built the railway and the vehicles? “The rolling stock for the system was supplied by a consortium led by French train-maker Alstom. A large number of construction companies were involved in building the system, including Mota-Engil of Portugal, China Communications, Acciona and FCC Construcción of Spain, and local companies Carso Infraestructura, Construcciones Urales, Gami Ingeniería and conglomerate Grupo México.”
The article closes with information about the passengers: “The total number of passengers who rode the Maya Train in the past year was 603,000, of which only 6% were foreign tourists.”
To see a short video about the Maya Train, with narration from President Sheinbaum’s dedication speech, click here.
Juan Ramon de la Fuente Ramirez serves on President Claudia Sheinbaum’s Cabinet as Secretaria de Relaciones Exteriores, literally Secretary of External Relations, that is, Foreign Minister, or as the the post is also called in Spanish, Canciller (Chancellor). De la Fuente is the equivalent of the American Secretary of State.
Juan Ramon de la Fuente Ramirez was born in Mexico City in 1951. Both of his parents were prominent enough to have their own Wikipedia pages, his father was medical doctor Ramón de la Fuente Muñiz and his mother academic Beatriz Ramírez de la Fuente.
Juan Ramon de la Fuente, son of Ramon and Beatriz, received his university education in Mexico and in Minnesota in the U.S.
Juan Ramon de la Fuente Ramirez became one of the most prominent psychiatrists of Mexico and was president of the Academia Mexicana de Ciencias from 1996 to 1997.
In 1994, De la Fuente became Secretary of Health in the presidential cabinet of President Ernesto Zedillo.
From 1999 to 2007, De la Fuente served as rector (university president) of the UNAM, the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (National Autonomous University of Mexico). UNAM is the 15th biggest university of the world (by enrollment) and the largest in Latin America.
From 2018 to 2023, De la Fuente was Mexico’s representative to the United Nations.
In 2024, Juan Ramon de la Fuente has capped off this distinguished record by now serving as Mexico’s Foreign Minister since October 1st, 2024.
Since September 9th, a war between two factions of the Sinaloa cartel has been going on in the Mexican state of Sinaloa. As of December 24th, the death toll had reached 650. That’s in addition to the missing, so it may well be higher.
The violence pits one faction, led by the son of “El Mayo” Zambada against the Chapitos, sons of “El Chapo” Guzman.
Here is a map of Mexico, with the state of Sinaloa in red:
Christmastime is a special time in Mexico. The way you say Merry Christmas in Spanish is ¡Feliz Navidad!
On December 24th, President Sheinbaum tweeted out a twitter X greeting which read “Merry Christmaas to all Mexicans. I wish the best for you, remember that the most important thing is love.“
She also released a short video of a Christmas greeting. It shows President Sheinbaum and her husband walking in the Palacio Nacional amidsts poinsettas (a Mexican plant associated with Christmas).
They arrive to a Christmas tree where she delivers a brief message. (Video here and here). Even her husband gets to speak a little!
President Claudia Sheinbaum and First Gentleman. Source: Excelsior
She sends out a blessing to “all the Mexicans in our territory… but also to the Mexicans outside of our territory in this moment, particularly all the Mexicans who are in the United States...”
Meanwhile, in the Zocalo, the historic plaza right outside the Palacio, the Verbena Navideña, a Christmas fair, began on December 17th and is set to continue until December 30th. Here is a photo of the opening night, with the Cathedral in the background:
A big, new, billion dollar U.S. embassy has been constructed in Mexico City. Here is a proposal illustration generated in the early stages of the project:
Design Illustration, U.S. Embassy, Mexico City. Source: David Brody Bond
It’s the biggest U.S. embassy in the world. It has seven stories, two of which are under ground level.
Embassy construction is the responsibility of the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Overseas Buildings Operations (OBO). The architectural firms are Tod Williams Billie Tsien Architects and Davis Brody Bond Architects. Caddell Construction is the general contractor.
The embassy is located on an 8.5 acre site, formerly the site of a Colgate-Palmolive factory. A toxic cleanup had to be carried out on the site before building.
Construction began in 2018 and it cost a billion dollars to build.
According to the OBO website: “This embassy will consolidate over 530,000 square feet of diplomatic operations, bringing together over 1,400 staff previously spread across multiple sites in the city. These staff will be supported by innovative technology systems to work efficiently.”
More from the website: “To ease traffic impact, the embassy features discrete entrances for various functions…The building’s seven floors include two below-grade levels that balance its size without sacrificing usable space. These floors take advantage of sunken courtyards that provide views to nature and plentiful natural light. Designed around a large, semi-covered, open-air courtyard, the embassy’s extensive outdoor space enhances opportunities for events and collaboration.”
Regarding the construction of the embassy: “ “An estimated total work force of 2,500 U.S., Mexican and third-country nationals were engaged in the construction of the new embassy of which 1,800 will be local. Nearly 225 million USD was spent locally on materials and service related to the project’s construction.”
On December 17th, 2024, U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Ken Salazar, with his trademark cowboy hat, inaugurated the embassy. Here is a photo of Ambassador Salazar at the ceremony:
U.S. Ambassador Ken Salazar at embassy dedication. Source: Pulse News Mexico
The new embassy is not yet open to the public, there is still work to be done on it.
Here is a photo of the current U.S. embassy in Mexico City:
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