On October 5th, 2024, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum delivered a speech in Jantetelco in the central state of Morelos (south of Mexico City).
In her speech, President Sheinbaum pledged that “all the programs”, meaning government programs, would become constitutional rights.
Here’s what the Presidenta said:…[V]ery soon in the Congress of the Union, all the programs are going to become constitutional rights: the pension for elder adults from the age of 65, the support for the handicapped, the scholarships for high school, the Sembrando Vida (Sowing Life) program, the support for agriculture, free fertilizer; all the Programas de Bienestar [umbrella program of various welfare programs] .
As we saw in the recent judicial reform [see here, here and here], the Mexican Constitution can be amended very rapidly, especially as the MORENA coalition has so much power in the current Executive, the Congress and the state legislatures.
Mexico City is not a state, but it’s the equivalent of a state. Its elected leader is not called a governor, but the Jefe (for a man) or Jefa (for a woman) de Gobierno, the “Chief of Government”.
On October 5th, 2024, Clara Brugada was inaugurated as Jefade Gobierno of Mexico City, with a population of over 9 million.
President Clara Sheinbaum was in attendance at the inauguration. Chief Brugada is a member of Sheinbaum’s MORENA/Green/PT coalition.
In doing so, she followed the inauguration ceremony with certain traditions.
The ceremony is held in the Legislative Palace of San Lazaro, meeting place of the Cámara de Diputados, Mexican equivalent of the House of Representatives. In attendance were the Mexican Congress and dignitaries; and some foreign guests.
THE PRESIDENTIAL OATH
In the U.S. inauguration, the new president has his left hand on the Bible and his right hand upraised, with the oath administered by the Chief Justice.
In the Mexican ceremony, no Bible is used, and the oath is not administered by the Chief Justice.
Here is a photo of Claudia Sheinbaum performing the presidential oath. To her right is Chief Justice Norma Lucía Piña Hernández . The seated individual is 94-year old Ifigenia Martinez, Speaker of the House. At the back is outgoing president AMLO, still wearing the presidential sash.
When Americans see Mexicans performing an oath or salute with outstretched arm, they immediately associate it with the Nazis. However, various societies have used this type of salute, it was not invented by the Nazis. In fact, in the United States it was used by schoolchildren saluting the flag until 1942, when it was changed so as not to look like a Nazi salute. So no, it’s not a Nazi salute.
Here is the text of the Mexican presidential oath: “Protesto guardar y hacer guardar la Constitución Política de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos y las leyes que de ella emanen, y desempeñar leal y patrióticamente el cargo de Presidenta de la República que el pueblo me ha conferido, mirando en todo por el bien y prosperidad de la Unión; y si así no lo hiciere que la Nación me lo demande.“
Here’s an English translation, from Wikipedia: “I affirm to follow and uphold the Political Constitution of the United Mexican States and the laws that emanate from it, and to perform loyally and patriotically the office of President of the Republic which the people have conferred upon me, in all actions looking after the good and prosperity of the Union; and if I were not to do so, may the Nation demand it of me.“
THE PRESIDENTIAL SASH
On ceremonial occasions, the President of Mexico wears a ceremonial sash. Outgoing president AMLO (Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador) arrived to the Chamber wearing the presidential sash. After her oath, Claudia Sheinbaum received the presidential sash, indicating that she is now the president.
THE INAUGURATION SPEECH
President Sheinbaum then delivered a lengthy speech which thanked the attendees and summarized the accomplishments of the previous AMLO administration. She announced new social programs and the expansion of current government programs.
President Sheinbaum is a protege of AMLO of the same MORENA party and a proponent of AMLO’s Fourth Transformation doctrine.
Here is a photo of President Claudia Sheinbaum, in her presidential sash, delivering her inaugural speech:
FOREIGN VISITORS
Sixteen heads of state attended, and 100 representatives of foreign countries. U.S. President Joe Biden did not attend, but the American delegation was headed by First Lady Dr. Jill Biden, who wore a Schiaparelli outfit.
On October 1st, 2024, Claudia Sheinbaum was inaugurated as the President of Mexico, or as they say in Spanish, La Presidenta de México. She is the first woman president of Mexico and the first Jewish president of Mexico.
Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) is just about at the end of his presidential term. The inauguration of his successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, is scheduled for October 1st, 2024.
The term of a Mexican president is six years, with no re-election. However, AMLO’s term is two months shy of six years, due to a constitutional change made in 2014 which is taking effect now. This changes the inauguration (Transmisión del Poder Ejecutivo Federal) from the beginning of December to the beginning of October.
On September 29th, AMLO was in Quintana Roo state, in far eastern Mexico. The presidente was there for a ceremony marking the end of the construction of the new Maya Train in the Yucatan Peninsula. Part of the railroad began operation in December of 2023.
Here is a photo of AMLO waving to folks at the ceremony:
AMLO possesses highly-effective political skills and is an example of perseverance, having lost the presidential race twice (2006 and 2012), and then winning in 2018 with a new political party that he founded. That party is now the dominant party of Mexico. (see The Astonishing Growth and Power of Mexico’s MORENA Party).
Claudia Sheinbaum, AMLO’s protege and now successor, was elected in June. AMLO has been very active in the transition period, continuing to drive policy, including the unprecedented judicial reform which was recently passed.
What will AMLO’s role be after his term is over? Is he going to retire to his ranch in Chiapas and write books, as he said? Or is still going to be active politically behind the scenes? Mexico is about to find out.
Here is a photo of AMLO with U.S. President Joe Biden and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, taken in January of 2023:
As for AMLO’s political legacy as president of Mexico, that is liable to be a hot topic of discussion in this time of transition and beyond.
ORACULUS – This is a “poll of polls” which tracks AMLO’s approval from December 2018 (when he became president) until Aug 28th, 2024 (in his second to last month). In six years AMLO’s approval has never dipped below 60%. As of August 28th it was over 70%.
LAST FIVE PRESIDENTS – This chart shows the approval ratings of AMLO and the previous four presidents: Zedillo (1994-2000), Fox (2000-2006), Calderon (2006-2012) and Pena Nieto (2012-2018). The chart allows the reader to compare the approval ratings of the five presidents at the same times during their presidencies, at intervals of 3 months. AMLO’s are usually the highest.
BUENDIA & MARQUEZ This poll goes from February 2019 to August 2024, asking this question, “In general terms, do you approve or disapprove of the job AMLO is doing as president of the republic?” AMLO’s lowest point was in the high 50s; in August of 2024 AMLO was at 73%. In other results of the August 2024 poll, 65% say they are satisfied with AMLO’s work as president; 71% say he governs for all Mexicans. From August of 2019 to August of 2024, this question was asked: “In general, do you think the country is on a very good, good, bad, or very bad path?” On that question, the lowest percentage of respondents saying “very good” or “good” was 47% and in August 2024 it was 53% saying “very good” or “good. Also in August of 2024, 67% said they were optimistic about Mexico’s future in contrast with 24% pessimistic and 4% neither optimistic or pessimistic. Respondents were also asked where they’d seen the biggest improvements during the AMLO presidency. The results showed that 49% said the economy, 35% the economic situation of the respondent or his own family, 27% said public health, 28% poverty and only 14% said violence related to narcotrafficking.
EL FINANCIERO asked the question “In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job Andrés Manuel López Obrador is doing as president of Mexico?” from December of 2018 to August of 2024. As of August 26th, 2024, AMLO was in the mid-60s. In August of 2024 respondents were asked how they view the AMLO administration’s management of various issues. Those who said the administration was “good” or “very good” in social programs were 75%, with 49% in the economy, but 28% in public security and 26% in corruption. When asked “In your opinion, what is the principal problem in the country today?”, 58% said crime.
REFORMA In this poll, respondents were asked “Do you approve or disapprove of the way AMLO is doing his job as president?”, from November 2018 (right before AMLO was president (!) to March of 2024 when AMLO had a 73% approval rating.
SUMMARY : Here’s how AS/COA summarizes AMLO’s popularity: “From the time he took office in December 2018, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, or AMLO, has enjoyed enviable popularity, exceeding the levels achieved by the four prior presidents. Still, his government fares less well on ratings related to certain issues, such as violence and corruption.”
There’s talk of constructing a high-speed rail line from Austin, Texas through San Antonio, Texas to Monterrey, Mexico.
From Newsweek: The push for high-speed rail connecting Texas and Mexico took a step forward this week, as officials from both sides of the border met to discuss the project’s future. The goal is creating a rail line that connects Austin, San Antonio, and Monterrey, Mexico, which would offer an alternative to the heavily congested I-35 corridor.
This would be the proposed route:
Back to Newsweek: The Texas Passenger Rail Advisory Committee, spearheaded by Bexar County Judge Peter Sakai and Travis County Judge Andy Brown met Mexican officials on Monday [September 23rd] aboard Amtrak’s Texas Eagle, an existing daily passenger service between Austin and San Antonio...Sakai said, “We need to come up with creative solutions for passengers who are looking for alternatives to using their vehicles to navigate the congested 80-mile stretch” between San Antonio and Austin.
The Mexican officials included a state official of Nuevo Leon, the state in which Monterrey is located; and the mayor-elect of Saltillo.
Officials in Monterrey and Nuevo Leon have already shown considerable interest in the project, with Nuevo Leon Governor Samuel Garcia last year urging Texas officials to consider using federal government funds for a high-speed rail line linking Monterrey with San Antonio.
The proposal faces obstacles.
One hurdle is Union Pacific’s control of the rail line between Austin and San Antonio. The freight company has historically been reluctant to share its tracks with passenger rail without a separate freight bypass.
Union Pacific was one of the railroads involved in the Transcontinental Railroad, joined by the Golden Spike in Utah in 1869. Here’s a photo:
Moreover, funding for the project could prove difficult to secure. Texas lawmakers have shown resistance to allocating funds for high-speed rail, especially given past legislation that prevents state funds from being used for rail projects operated by private entities.
President AMLO (Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador) is nearing the end of his presidency, so summaries and analyses of his term are coming out.
Here’s one from a Mexican official, who reports that during AMLO’s presidency, over 13 million migrants crossed from Mexico into the United States over the two countries’ common border.
From Efe via Telemundo: “During the presidency of Mexican president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, more than 13 million migrants crossed the border between Mexico and the United States, with Ciudad Juarez and El Paso (Texas) being some of the most critical points in the migratory flow, reported the Director General of the Coordinación de Oficinas de Representación [Coordination of Offices of Representation] del [of the] Instituto Nacional de Migración (INM), Héctor Martínez Castuera.“
The INM is the Mexican federal government’s immigration agency.
“During the period between December of 2018 [when AMLO became president] and September of 2024 [second to last month of his presidency] the northern border of Mexico has established itself as the nerve center for migrants coming from various countries, principally of Central America, South America and the Caribbean, who seek to arrive to the United States with the purpose of finding better opportunities.”
If you break that down by U.S. presidents, Trump was president when AMLO became president until January 20th, 2021, when Biden became president, and is still president. So that’s AMLO-Trump for 2 years and 7 weeks; and AMLO-Biden for 3 years and 8 months.
About Ciudad Juarez: Ciudad Juarez, which adjoins El Paso, Texas, has been one of the principal migratory thoroughfares, where thousands of persons wait in shelters, improvised camps or outdoors, to cross the Rio Bravo [Rio Grande] and request asylum in U.S. territory.
“I think that no border is prepared for 5 million persons, neither that of Mexico, nor of the United States, nor that of Colombia. These are global conditions. I understand that there are things that are being done to facilitate their not having to arrive here (at the border) to request asylum, but the world is not ready for the migrant wave”, said Guillermo Asian, spokesman of the Fideicomiso para la Competitividad y Seguridad Ciudadana (Ficosec) [Trust for Competitiveness and Citizen Security].
President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) lacks one more week as President of Mexico.
On October 1st, he is scheduled to be replaced by Claudia Sheinbaum.
According to Milenio, by the time his term ends in one week, AMLO is likely to have passed 27 reforms to the Mexican Constitution. That’s if all goes according to plan, which it probably will.
Coincidentally, there have been 27 amendments to the U.S. Constitution in the entire history of that document, which took effect in 1789.
And yet, AMLO does not even hold the record for Mexican presidents for constitutional reforms.
From Milenio (my translation): “President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador will finish his six-year term with 27 constitutional reforms approved by the Congress of the Union (Mexican Congress), as a foundation for the ‘second story’ of the so-called Fourth Transformation.”
The “Fourth Transformation” is AMLO’s political agenda. It means the fourth transformation of Mexico after 1) Independence (1810-1821), 2) the Reform War (1858-1861) and the Mexican Revolution (1910-1917).
AMLO’s recent judicial reform is one of these reforms, which was pushed through the process rapidly. There are 26 others, including the pending National Guard jurisdiction change, likely to pass this week.
And yet, AMLO does not hold the presidential record for passing constitution reforms.
Felipe Calderon (photo at left) is in first place.
Calderon was president from 2006 to 2012.
President Calderon had 38 constitutional reforms passed.
Enrique Peña Nieto (photo at right) is in second place.
Peña Nieto was president from 2012 to 2018.
President Peña Nietohad 28 constitutional reforms, which is 1 more than AMLO will have in a week, if all goes according to plan.
Comparing the U.S. and Mexican political systems, it’s easier and faster to amend the Mexican Constitution than it is the U.S. Constitution.
The MORENA party, now Mexico’s dominant party, was founded by Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO). Though AMLO stepped down as leader in 2017 to run for president, as Reuters puts it, “analysts maintain that the party has always been subordinate to the ruler.”
The current official chairman of MORENA is Mario Delgado, but he’s been designated as the next secretary of public education in the about-to-take-office administration of Claudia Sheinbaum.
On September 22nd, the MORENA party held its “congreso nacional extraordinario” and there was an election for new leadership.
The new party chairman, to take office on October 1st, is Luisa Maria Alcalde, currently Secretary of the Interior (Gobernación). She was chosen unanimously. In fact it was already known beforehand that the post was hers.
Likewise, Andres Manuel Lopez Beltran, “Andy”, son of AMLO, was named Secretary of Organization.